The holiday period is over and Canadian politics is gripped by a single question: when will the country hear from Justin Trudeau?

The prime minister has largely disappeared from public view since Dec. 16, when Chrystia Freeland — his finance minister and once his most powerful ally in cabinet — resigned in devastating fashion, with a public letter that criticized him.

Trudeau spent much of the holidays at a ski resort in western Canada and is not planning any official events or appearances by the end of the week, according to a person familiar with his schedule. He has given no public indication yet of when he’ll announce a decision about his future.

But lawmakers in his Liberal Party keep turning up the pressure on him to quit as the party’s polling numbers slide further. A new survey by Nanos Research, taken over the holiday period, has the Conservative Party extending its lead going into an election year.

Members of the Liberal caucus of Quebec, Trudeau’s home province, have asked the prime minister to step aside, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, following a similar declaration by those in Ontario. Some Liberal members of the House of Commons have gone public, including Toronto lawmaker Rob Oliphant, who posted a letter asking Trudeau to make way for “a new leader elected through a robust, open leadership contest.”

Liberal representatives from the Atlantic provinces said Donald Trump’s imminent return to power in Washington makes it more urgent that Trudeau makes a decision.

“The country could face instability, notably from an economic threat in the potential of a 25 per cent U.S. tariff on Canadian imports from the incoming administration,” said a letter from Kody Blois, who leads a group of Liberal members from the four easternmost provinces.

“Simply put, time is of the essence,” Blois said, adding that it’s “not tenable” for the prime minister to stay.

The longer Trudeau waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion, said Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research.

“Until now it was primarily Justin Trudeau’s personal brand that was damaged,” said Nanos, referring to the long polling slump. “I think now the big issue is how much damage will he inflict on the party brand because he is dragging out what looks like will be his resignation at one point or another.”

If the Nanos polling number were to hold up in an election, the Liberals would lose most of their 153 seats. The party has now launched pre-election advertising, focusing on concern that Conservatives will cut social programs.

But it would be difficult for the Liberals to smoothly transition to new leadership. The Trudeau government’s hold on parliament is precarious, with the three largest opposition parties promising to vote “no confidence.” If they do, it will trigger an election. The House resumes sitting in late January.

‘Politically wounded’

A Liberal leadership race may take three months to run — under different circumstances, it would take even longer. Even if the Liberals are able to avoid a forced election during a leadership contest, the winner would have a relatively short period of time, maybe only weeks, before being thrown into a national campaign.

To ensure continuity in government, Trudeau could resign but say he’s staying in office while a leadership race takes place. But “a politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump,” Nanos said.

Regardless, the Liberal Party — which has dominated Canadian federal politics since the Second World War — faces a difficult road in 2025. Even with a new leader, the party would need a major turnaround in public opinion just to save most of its seats, much less hold onto government.

The Liberals’ worst showing in any national election was in 2011, when they won 19 per cent of the popular vote, which translated into just 34 of 308 seats. About two years later, they chose Trudeau as their new leader. “He took the Liberals out of the wilderness,” Nanos said. “It very well may be that he will return them to the political wilderness at the end of the next federal election.”

Bloomberg.com